Is hypothetical thinking a waste of time?

In this article by Bryan Caplan, he submits that it is not. Conversely, he submits that hypothetical thinking is some of the most productive thinking that you can do.

Caplan writes:

“Hypotheticals serve two radically different functions.  Devising practical contingency plans is one such function.  The other function, however, is to achieve intellectual clarity in a complex world.  Pondering a hypothetical is fruitful as long as it serves one of these two functions.”

With this criteria, I thought of some examples that fit these functions.

Function #1: For devising practical contingency plans.

“If there were a fire in your house, what would you grab and what path would you take?”

This is a more practical hypothetical that has real-life application.

Function #2: To achieve intellectual clarity in a complex world.

“What advice would you give your younger self?”

While this is something that has no practical application, meaning that it could never actually happen, it does help to bring clarity and more purposeful thinking. Thinking about this question does not apply only to the hypothetical, but also causes you to think about decisions you have made and what decisions you will want to make in the future.

What hypotheticals serve neither function?

“If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?”

This does not have a practical application to life and it doesn’t provide intellectual clarity. While a very popular hypothetical, it seems to me that it is one not worth spending the time to think about.

“Okay, I get it. Hypotheticals can be valuable, but couldn’t we at least use more realistic hypotheticals?”

When was the last time you heard someone ask you what you would do if you won $1 in the lottery? While it has practical application, it doesn’t serve any purpose. The thoughts and ideas that come from it are not interesting or thought-provoking. The question is applicable but useless.

The question “what you would do if you won one billion dollars,” however, causes much contemplation and thought. It is something outside our normal realm of thinking and it challenges us to look at the world from a perspective that we may not get any other way.

Make it personal

The last thing that I would add is that the more personal the hypothetical, the more value it seems to create. By asking questions that apply directly to someone, you understand a deeper part of how their mind works that is impossible to gain by asking only real-life questions.

Make a list of hypothetical questions to ask when you want to get to know people on a deeper level. You will be amazed at the conversations it opens up.

Here are 3 to get you started:

If you could be anywhere in the world right now, where would you be?

What do you think people would say about you if you died today?

What would you do if you could be invisible?